Just a few thoughts

Marked as time sensitive- the heading that is :) For in a few hours.... And well , because after all, " what the 41 year old Mr A" doesnt quite have the rizz of the 40 and 20. So what would the 40 year old me tell the 20 year old me, if the latter could have somehow miraculously time travelled for a bit to get some advise. With all the wisdom and the experiences since.  And with all the constraints of well Mr A. being Mr.A.  Some which the 40 year old Mr. A might be following,  and a lot he might not have. Well here's how the conversation might go: 1. Its been a very smooth 20 years of your life so far.  Consider yourself blessed. And have gratitude for it.  Knowing you,  you surely will.  The next 20 may not be that smooth. There will be more ups and downs. Nothing earth shattering, even though many things might feel that way during the moment itself,  just as it might even now for things far more meaningless.  Very little ever is earth shat...

Well, this is going to another of those posts which uses concepts from the world of finance and the world of probability to make generalized observations on life.  Dear reader of the blog,  you have already been forewarned :) So this is an insight which came to me while I was trying something at work.  It isn't any ground breaking insight ( some of these concepts are known in the world of finance and markets anyway) but, here, I am just trying to see if I can take away something more generalized for life as I see it. The world of investing,  trading and finance, is by its nature informationally fuzzy,  in the sense , that anything you know 100% for sure , is in all probability already priced in.  The challenge,  the joy,  and the rewards lie in figuring out something which you don't know for sure,  but yet can figure out with some probabilistic level of certainty.  And to some extent, this is true of life as well --- this part of figurin...

If 2024 was the " year of the DGAF" and 2023 " the year of no regrets ", the end of 2022 a time of inner peace , and 2021 , a year where a lot changed ( or did it really?), what about 2025? Its the year where I really felt a year older or maybe even more, no kidding- not that I don't feel time pass by in other years - but this year,  I really felt it.  Maybe its the psychological threshold of crossing 40. Maybe its the acceleration in curing of a whole spectrum of delusions  ( a process no doubt which happens over many years and maybe even decades) and how reality hits you. Does that last part mean I am less escapist than ever? Probably not,  i would still think.  Its one thing to just "know" the realities of life, and another thing to "problem solve" it,  if you get what I mean. This is even assuming the "problem set" remains static , and new problems which you think you need to solve for,  are not added to the list. Which may not ...

 One of the criticisms of the AI models ( LLMs) of today is the problem of hallucinations. Which apparently really boils down to the models seeing spurious correlations and patterns where they don't exist and "filling in" when they aren't sure or don't have a certain answer.  But is the human mind really different? Are we that immune to hallucinations? Not in the literal or schizophrenic sense of the word. But in seeing patterns where none exists? Unlike the AI hallucinations , the patterns that the human mind sees have some in built biases. We are simply prone to seeing patterns we want to see. The AIs do not , atleast,  as yet have a want function! This is especially true if you are the sort of person who like yours truly at some level,  believes that the world is conspiring to help you ( rational mind: yeah right!), eventually helping make sense of it all and who thinks everything happens for a reason.  After all, seeing or seeking patterns is a good and a ea...

I mentioned somewhere in my previous post that I am an "underconfident" person ( and...damn it.. that's true),  while simultaneously introducing a nuance between self assurance and confidence.  I also mentioned that this is probably one of the worst things you could ever admit in public (and damn it.... that's true...) Is it even underconfidence though?   Do I lack faith in my abilities? For most part,  the answer is an unqualified NO, in that I truly do believe in what I am capable of , in most domains of life,  to the point , that I might even be overestimating it. So its not that.  But maybe its the external orientation of confidence vs the internal bit of self assurance that explains it? But does it? Does that mean I feel I am inferior to others? In most domains,  i really don't think so. Nor do i overestimate other's capabilities , which on most domains, I think I can size up quite well in terms of estimating. If its not the abilities,  ...

How do you perceive the ( your) future? How do you operate ( for lack of a better word) in the present? What has been your experience in the past? These are three fundamental questions you can ask yourself and indeed others in almost any field they operate in or in any field of life really. Related are the concepts of assuredness, confidence,  desire/ambition and optimism/ pessimism. How you perceive the future is often a function of your present,  along with a natural inclination towards the whole spectrum of optimism and pessimism. And to some extent the learnings from your experiences in the past. How do you operate in the present is a function of both how you visualize your future ( which gives rise to the spectrum of ambition and desire) and the experiences of the past ( How do you assess yourself,  How self asssured are you,  How confident are you etc)  To put it another way,  assuredness and confidence is about an assessment of what you are,  de...