Just a few thoughts

Some "random" thoughts on probabilities and randomness :) When you are hoping or going for something long shot, how do you even assess if you are even on the right track or getting closer? I mean even from a purely simple Bayesian perspective,  the probability of A ( the thing you are hoping / going for) given B ( a random event which may or may not be connected to A in any way) isn't likely to be all that different from the apriori probability of A, given that both of them are likely small,  even if the chances of the former may have improved a trifle.  On  one hand,  its easy to be fooled by randomness and on the other hand,  its also easy to miss patterns which could potentially validate I guess ultimately it boils down to what one wants to beleive? And then there's also the difference between hoping for a long shot and actually going for a long shot. Hoping is ultimately cost free,  but for the eventual disappointment at some eventual point of reck...

Would you lead the same life over again,  and again,  and again? If you were told that you could go back in time and lead your life once more, but nothing really would change? Or to quote Nietzsche : " What if some day or night a demon were to steal after you into your loneliest loneliness, and say to you, "This life as you now live it and have lived it, you will have to live once more and innumerable times more; and there will be nothing new in it, but every pain and every joy and every thought and sigh and everything unutterably small or great in your life will have to return to you, all in the same succession and sequence" ... Would you not throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse the demon who spoke thus? Or have you once experienced a tremendous moment when you would have answered him: "You are a god and never have I heard anything more divine." It's a deep question.  Now truth be told,  hard as I may dig through all my memories, there's ...