Of probabilities and optimism

 Let's say the probability of something happening ( is X , something partly under your control and partly not ( as are most things in life).  And lets assume for the rest of the post this is something you wish would happen ( you can also assume the reverse, except you replace optimism with pessimism and higher by lower and vice versa in the  paragraphs that follow)

Now this X can be a fairly high probability event ( very close to 1), a moderately high probability event ( somewhere in middle of 0.5 and 1), a moderately low probability event ( somewhere in the middle of 0 and 0.5), and a very low probability event ( very close to 0).

Now there is another probability in play here: the probability that we perceive of that same something happening- lets call that Y. And that can be very different from X.  Ofcourse we all wish we can predict that Y as close as possible to X.  But in reality we could be overestimating or severely overestimating it, underestimating or severely underestimating it relative to X.

What's more,  a lot of things are such that the probability of something happening is also influenced by how you perceive it ! Or atleast that's the way I think it is.  Say the probability of x is < 0.5. You think wait, this is fairly a low chance event,  why do I even put the effort ? And that implicitly reduces the probability further.  What they call a self fulfilling prophecy.  Works the other way round too, you overestimate the probability slightly of something which has a good likelihood of happening anyway and well,  it becomes even more likely.  

There are two other combinations here: 3) one where you significantly overestimate the probability of a low likelihood event and 4) the other where you significantly underestimate the likelihood of a high probability event.  

Now in the scenario 3 here, while it may marginally improve the probability of the said event happening, in all likelihood, what is more likely is disillusionment, especially if you play this scenario a few multiple times over. Scenario 4 is the tale of missed chances, where your cynicism/pessimism actually meant you ended up low balling and missed an opportunity.

While the post here has considered a scenario or event in isolation, but I suppose this is true of life in general as well.

The conclusion? In most things in life, it helps to play the odds , and for that first, more importantly to also estimate the odds, but it also helps to be just that trifle ( just a little but not extraordinarily) more optimistic than what the most objective estimates of the odds would suggest.


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