Choices and locus of control

 As with a lot of other posts on this blog, this will start in a meandering way before coming to some more profound observations...

The traffic in Mumbai in the evenings tends to be messy. The sort of stuff that could get you irritated if you end up spending an hour or beyond in it. 

It doesnt make much of a difference in the grand scheme of thingsbut there's always this tendency from my side to try to get to save a few minutes by choosing one route, usually a preferred one, over the other. And then there are the Ola cabbies who usually use Google Maps most of the time, which should ideally optimize for the time but quite often doesnt (or so I think atleast!).

So there are these times when the cabbie takes a different route from my preferred one and a few times it ends up in even more traffic. It probably might make a few mins difference at max but it ends up with me in a really pissed mood for some reason. 

I am however less pissed, when I myself choose a particular route , and that itself ends up having more traffic than I anticipated ( which happened today). I am also not *that* pissed off when say I dont have any preffered route and I leave it to god, Ola and google maps to choose the best route but there's traffic anyways.

Now in the grand scheme of things it doesnt really matter much. A 1 hr 10 min ride turning into 1 hr 20 mins isnt really that big of a deal. And like I explained before, the level of getting pissed is less dependent on the outcome here but on whether or not I made the call or somebody else made it or well it was just one of those sucky days where there's traffic anyways. Rationally the outcome ( whether 100 mins or 80 mins or 60 mins) should cause more annoyance than who or what made the choice, but in the first scenario ( i.e of the driver choosing a different route than the one I prefer), I probably end up becoming more pissed because

a) Its probably easier to blame someone else for a sucky situation

b) I didnt have the locus of control ( to make a rather trivial decision though, in this case) which creates the feeling of being pissed

Anyway now from the meandering observation to a more broader point of the way I think of choices and how much control I want to exercise over the choice. ( the advantage of spending an hour and a half in sucky traffic is that it helps you reflect and make profound generalized observations from inconsequential happenings!)

So there are a few possibilities here to think in terms of choices and preferred loci of control.

1. Where choices have to be made between two events of fairly similar likelihood but its a low impact ( i.e doesnt make much difference either way) event: Here I prefer I make the choice ( first preferred option) rather than somebody else make it or I just leave it to chance. The example above for instance. But could be extended to slightly more meaningful events

2. Where the choice has to be made between two equally bad options of moderate to high/impact: When either choice is about just making the best of a bad situation but its going to be bad anyway. Here I just prefer the choice to be taken out of my hands! Would rather somebody else make the choice for me. 

3. Where the choice is between a high positive upside but low probability event and a low downside but high probability event:  Now anyone would prefer or hope the first one happens but again considering the balance of probabilities, this is way more tricky one than it sounds.. More often than not I just procrastinate and simple HOPE and pray the former happens while not exercising any choice for as much as I can. In other words, let destiny/god make the choice for you

4. Where the choice is between two equally good options: Probably am indifferent to how the choice is made in this case. Though at the margins, might prefer that I choose it in an informed way ( the informed part here is critical) than leave it to luck or to anybody else.

So I guess it boils to in statistical terms, what is the "expected downside" ( i.e probability of downside * extent of downside)? As long as its negligible ( option 4)  or low ( option 1), I am comfortable and prefer things stay in my ambit of control.  The locus of control becomes more important than the difference in outcomes.

Once the expected downside gets into moderate or high territory ( i.e either probability or extent of downside is high, even if the other is low), I just prefer it be taken out of my hands! In one case you just hope for the best and leave it to god ( scenario 3) and in the other case you just are indifferent at the margins ( atleast till the time the event/decision happens), as long as you arent making the decision

I think the above frameworks pretty much explain a lot of my choices ( or more times, the lack of them) over the 37 and 10- 11 odd months of my life....